Baltic States

Here you can find a list of articles, reports published by Dr. Agnia Grigas or publications where she has provided commentary on the three Baltic States – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. While most of the publications cover the military and energy security of the Baltic States, institutions like NATO and the European Union, some of them also discuss domestic affairs like political parties or election outcomes.

The Baltic states: No easy target

Al Jazeera

February 16, 2017

The Baltic states are again worried about Russia's intentions, but this time they are ready to defend themselves.

Lithuania Braces for Putin … and Trump

Foreign Policy

December 08, 2016

In the immortal words of Suga Free, and, it would seem, in the halls of power of Vilnius, “If you stay ready, you ain’t got to get ready.”

Can Lithuania’s New Government Maintain Stability?

Atlantic Council

November 10, 2016

On the same day that the United States announced the election of Donald J. Trump as its new president, its small ally, Lithuania, announced its new government.

Lithuania Issues Citizens With Third War Survival Manual in Three Years


October 30, 2016

Lithuania has issued three guidebooks since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Is Russia really a threat to the Baltic states?

Al Jazeera

July 06, 2016

Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, relations between NATO and Russia appear to have reached an all-time low.

Терминал стратегической важности (in Russian)

Novaya Gazeta

March 03, 2016

Благодаря терминалу сжиженного газа в Клайпеде Литве удалось выйти на мировой рынок газа и получить альтернативу поставкам голубого топлива из России.

Russia’s Motives in the Baltic States

Foreign Policy Research Institute

December 06, 2015

Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and subsequent war in eastern Ukraine prompted discussions in the Baltic States and among their allies of whether a similar Russian hybrid warfare intervention in these NATO member states would be possible. 

How Russia Sees Baltic Sovereignty

The Moscow Times

July 13, 2015

A recent decision by the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office to review the legality of a 1991 decision granting the Baltic states independence from the Soviet Union has irritated the governments of the Baltic states and raised concern among their allies. 

Russia’s military games for Baltic and Polish civilians and youth

Lithuania Tribune

April 21, 2015

With the Russian 9th of May celebrations of Soviet victory in World War Two approaching, many in the Baltic States are concerned about the potential risk of provocations or confrontation stemming from the more radical and disgruntled elements of the local Russian minority.

Are the Baltic states at risk of Russian aggression?

The Hill

April 12, 2015

As tensions are brewing between Russia and the West, the three tiny states on the coast of the Baltic Sea - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - seem to be at the epicentre of this imminent showdown. 

Los bálticos se protegen de Rusia (in Spanish)

El Pais

February 04, 2015

Los expertos alertan contra el Kremlin por usar los medios para atraer a las minorías.

En première ligne, les Baltes se préparent au pire (in French)

Le Monde

February 04, 2015

La protection de l’OTAN n’empêche pas l’Estonie, la Lituanie et la Lettonie de redouter un scénario à l’ukrainienne.

Kreml na wojnie soft power (in Polish)

Gazeta Wyborzca

January 30, 2015

Rosyjska polityka zagraża wszystkim trzem krajom bałtyckim. Gdy nadejdzie moment słabości, Kreml będzie potrafił go wykorzystać.

Litwa może zrezygnować z rosyjskiego gazu (in Polish)


December 10, 2014

Terminal LNG, który Litwini uruchomili w Kłajpedzie, zapewni im dostęp do alternatywnych źródeł dostaw gazu oraz poprawi energetyczne bezpieczeństwo. 

Вильнюс готов обойтись без российского газа (in Russian)

Deutsche Welle

December 02, 2014

Новый терминал СПГ даст Литве доступ к мировому рынку газа и козыри в торге с "Газпромом" о более выгодных условиях поставки голубого топлива.

Compatriot Games: Russian-Speaking Minorities in the Baltic States

World Politics Review

October 30, 2014

Nowhere does Russia’s policy of protecting its “compatriots”—Moscow’s loosely defined term for the Russian diaspora and Russian-speakers residing in the former Soviet republics—spell as much concern for the current post-Cold War order as in the Baltic states.

Unsolved dilemma of Orlen Lietuva (Mažeikių Nafta)

Lithuania Tribune

October 28, 2014

The launch of Lithuania’s new LNG Terminal Independence in Klaipėda is cause for celebration as a victory over Russian gas dominance. as well as neighbouring Latvia and Estonia.

The EU’s unsresolved issue of the Russian embargo against Lithuania’s oil refinery


October 30, 2014

Many have correctly perceived the 8 year-old oil embargo against the Lithuanian oil refinery Orlen Lietuva as Moscow’s political vendetta against Vilnius. Nonetheless, the complete picture is more complex.

Latvian Election Results Underscore Regional Tensions With Russia

World Politics Review

October 09, 2014

Last weekend, Latvia’s ruling coalition maintained its majority in parliamentary elections that were held against the backdrop of continued harassment from Russia. 

Energy game changer: Klaipėda LNG terminal and the Baltic states

Lithuania Tribune

September 21, 2014

The end of summer will elicit concerns among many EU states regarding the stability of the Russian gas supply during the cold winter months as tensions in Ukraine persist. Yet, one unexpected set of states – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – will greet the winter with more energy security than ever.

Russia’s borders: minorities and military manoeuvres rattle nerves in the Baltics

The Conversation

September 02, 2014

Anxiety over the crisis in eastern Ukraine has ratcheted in recent days amid claims of an effective Russian invasion, and warnings of NATO making a 4000-troop reaction force available to the region.

Russia-Baltic Relations after Crimea's Annexation: Reasons for Concern?

Cicero Foundation

June 04, 2014

When the Baltic states gained NATO and EU membership ten years ago, the dual accession was believed to have resolved the security dilemma of the Baltic states vis-a-vis their regional hegemon Russia.

Baltic Bounce Back

Global Finance Magazine

May 06, 2014

Although hit hard by the global financial crisis, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia recovered quickly. The three countries are building ever-closer EU ties to separate themselves economically from Eastern neighbors.

Political scientist Agnia Grigas: Baltic-Russian relations are driven by history and energy


February 26, 2014

Among the Baltic states, Estonian government is the least conciliatory towards Moscow, says Lithuanian political scientist Agnia Grigas interviewed by Estonia's Postimees.

Pride and trepidation in Latvia as it swaps to euros

The Christian Science Monitor

January 24, 2014

Latvia became the eurozone's newest member on Jan. 1, its latest step into the European sphere. But it is also the poorest euro-using country, and still dependent on Russia.

Energy policy: the Achilles heel of the Baltic states

Jacques Delors Institute

July 08, 2013

Nearly a decade following EU accession, the energy sector remains the most vulnerable national arena for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – an “Achilles heel” of the three Baltic states.

Legacies, Coercion and Soft Power: Russian Influence in the Baltic States

Chatham House

July 31, 2012

Russia attempts to constrain the independence of the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and to undermine their political, economic and civilizational choices. However, it has failed to alter significant aspects of their strategic direction.

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