As Ukraine launches a fresh offensive to retake Russian-occupied lands in the south, another struggle is taking shape that will likely be as consequential as what happens on the battlefield. And that is the energy war.

Putin’s regime could endure decades of sanctions and isolation: Until then, Russia depends on the sale of its natural resources. As long as the West continues to buy these resources, Russia will be able to continue to finance its invasion of Ukraine and strengthen Putin’s regime.

Last Saturday, Lithuania banned the transit of goods subjected to European Union sanctions through its territory to the Russian exclave Kaliningrad, which is on the Baltic Sea and about 1,300km (800 miles) from Moscow.

Lithuania said the move was in line with European sanctions. Infuriated, Moscow called it a “blockade” and promised to respond.

The international sanctions imposed on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine have opened a new front in the Ukraine conflict, an economic one. Moscow is now trying to curb inflation and maintain the value of its currency, the ruble, while European countries are discussing the possibility of stopping their purchase of Russian hydrocarbons. Elizabeth Cherneff narrates this report from the VOA Moscow bureau.

Ayesha Rascoe discusses Russia's threats against NATO countries and the decision to cut off natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria with Agnia Grigas, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

U.S. president Joe Biden announced a ban on Russian energy imports, but now America’s allies must also stop funding the Russian war machine by sanctioning Russian oil and gas. Energy sanctions will carry some costs, yet they are increasingly feasible for the West and a small price to pay to end the Kremlin’s efforts to upend the post-Cold War order.

Agnia Grigas of the Atlantic Council says Ukraine’s NATO membership was “never really on the table,” and the war with Russia is not a question of the military alliance’s expansion.

Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Agnia Grigas says the West must urgently stop funding the Russian war machine by stopping purchases of Russian oil and gas. Grigas specializes in energy and foreign policy of the U.S. and Eurasia including Europe, Russia, China, the states of the former Soviet Union, and the Baltic States. She is also an author of three critically acclaimed books including 'Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire'. Grigas speaks to David Ingles on "Bloomberg Markets: China Open".

Agnia Grigas, Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council and Author of 'Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire', discusses the latest on Russia's war with Ukraine and the impact of international bans on Russian oil and gas with Juliette Saly and Doug Krizner on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia.

On UpFront, Yevgenia Albats, a journalist and author; Stefanie Babst, the former deputy assistant secretary-general of NATO; and Agnia Grigas, an author and Atlantic Council senior fellow, join Marc Lamont Hill for a roundtable discussion looking at Putin’s possible reasons for launching the invasion of Ukraine and the likely consequences of his war - not just for Ukrainians, but for Russian citizens as well.

As the risk of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine persists, the threat of another kind of war—a gas war—is just as worrisome to many, especially in Europe and the United States (US). The Russian state-owned giant Gazprom’s new gas pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 2, is reshaping geopolitics as much as, and at the same time as, the 135,000 Russian troops stationed on the borders of Ukraine.

Following the 2009 ‘gas war’ with Ukraine, Russia took steps to initiate new gas pipelines that exclude several Eastern European countries from the gas transit. The Nord Stream 2 (NS2) and Turk Stream 2 projects are intended to tighten the grip of Russia’s Gazprom on EU markets. Despite criticism from Brussels and increasingly vocal opposition from Poland and other Eastern European Member States, Germany continues to push forward with NS2.

In recent months, Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom has used the Biden administration’s acquiescence to Nord Stream 2 to squeeze European energy markets. With the winter heating season soon approaching, is the Kremlin trying to spark an energy crisis in Europe?

I vividly recollect defending my Doctorate in International Relations from the University of Oxford in a drafty stone-work room that dated back half a millennium. That was in 2010 but it feels like yesterday. The defense examination called a “Viva Voce” at Oxford required an oral defense in front of two Oxford professors of my written dissertation that spanned 320 pages containing 100,000 plus words.